Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na količine vode in poplave morja v slovenski Istri // Climate change impacts on water quantities and sea flooding in Slovene Istria - Kovačič, Gregor; Kolega, Nataša; Brečko Grubar, Valentina (Geografski vestnik, 2016)
V prispevku so obravnavane pretočne razmere rek v slovenski Istri in dvigovanje gladine morja. Z uporabo Senovega naklona smo v slovenski Istri potrdili statistično značilna trenda povečevanja skupne letne višine izhlapevanja 49 mm/desetletje in naraščanja povprečne letne temperature zraka 0,53 oC/desetletje. Statistično značilnega zmanjševanja skupne letne višine padavin nismo potrdili. Omenjeni dejavniki podnebnih sprememb, skupaj z drugimi spremembami v okolju, vplivajo na zmanjševanje srednjih letnih pretokov rek v slovenski Istri 40–80 l/s na desetletje, a trendi niso statistično značilni. Padajoči trend za reko Rižano je z vidika oskrbe obalnih občin s pitno vodo zelo zaskrbljujoč. Trend zviševanja srednje gladine morja (4,5 mm/desetletje) ni statistično značilen. Analiza je pokazala, da bi bilo ob dvigu gladine morja za 1 m poplavljenih 848 zgradb in ogroženih približno 3800 prebivalcev (največ v Kopru). The article deals with discharge characteristics of rivers in Slovene Istria and with the rising of the sea level. Using the non-parametric Sen’s slope test statistically significant trends of increasing annual potential evapotranspiration (49 mm per decade) and increasing mean annual air temperature (0.53°C per decade) were determined. Statistically significant decreasing of annual precipitation was not determined. These climate change factors, together with some other environmental changes, are reflected in decreasing of mean annual discharges of the rivers in Slovene Istria with the intensity of 40-80 l/s per decade, but the trends are not statistically significant. Decreasing trend of the Rižana river is problematic in terms of water supply in the region. Increasing trend of maximum sea level (4.5 mm per decade) is not statistically significant. Analysis showed that a total of 848 buildings would be flooded, and a total of around 3,800 people would be at risk (the majority of whom are living in Koper) if the sea level would increase by 1 m.