VARNOSTNA TVEGANJA IN GROŽNJE V SODOBNEM SVETU
Povzetek
Spremembe v mednarodnem politično-varnostnem okolju po hladni vojni imajo dvojno in, kar je še posebej zanimivo, antagonistično naravo. Tako lahko na eni strani opazujemo stabilizacijske učinke omenjenih procesov, hkrati pa isti procesi povzročajo ali nosijo s seboj tudi vrsto destabilizacijskih učinkov. Vse bolj je tudi očitno, da nove varnostne situacije ni mogoče pojasniti z običajnimi termini iz časa hladne vojne. Prihodnja varnostna tveganja in grožnje je zelo težko predvidevati, saj postajajo vse celovitejša in težje zaznavna. Dokaj jasno se pod vplivom univerzalizacije, demilitarizacije in globalizacije kaže tudi proces spremembe prioritet pri zagotavljanju varnosti. Nabor (najaktualnejših) varnostnih tveganj in groženj se stalno spreminja, tako v strukturi kot v intenzivnosti posameznih pojavnih oblik, njihovo število pa se ves čas povečuje. Pomembne so seveda tudi sinergistične povezave med na prvi pogled še nenevarnimi varnostnimi izzivi in tveganji. V ospredju niso več samo nacionalnovarnostni problemi, ampak se vse bolj govori o ogroženosti celotnega človeštva. Zato je res že skrajni čas, da najdemo in razvijamo nove načine komuniciranja v odnosu človek – človek in človek – narava. Vendar bo naše delovanje in reševanje nekaterih že zares akutnih problemov očitno ponovno omejevala (ne)sposobnost doseganja globalnega soglasja o najpomembnejših varnostnih tveganjih in grožnjah ter načinih za njihovo preprečevanje, odvračanje, omejevanje, nadzorovanje in odpravljanje.
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