ADAPTING TO WEATHER AND HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN THE ALPINE REGION: THE X-RISK-CC PROJECT

Abstract

The Sora River basin has experienced numerous weather and hydrological extremes over recent decades, primarily floods and droughts. The most severe flood events occurred in September 2007 and August 2023, when precipitation reached return periods of several centuries. Analyses indicate an increase in the intensity of short-duration rainfall (2–3 days) by up to 2.6% per decade, especially in the northern part of the basin. Droughts, such as in 2022, are associated with significant precipitation deficits and heatwaves, the frequency of which is expected to increase up to 13.5 times with a warming of 3–4°C. The X-RISK-CC project, which brings together researchers and national and local authorities from five Alpine countries, has developed a comprehensive approach to assess and manage risks in the Alpine region. Based on past events and collaboration with local stakeholders, key deficiencies in risk management in the Sora basin were identified. A participatory approach was applied, covering all phases of risk management: prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. Using trend analysis, climate change projections and climate storylines, and by involving local stakeholders, technical, organizational, and legislative improvements are proposed such as more effective communication, the development of local hydrological forecasts, and the update of municipal protection plans—which will enhance the resilience of the Alpine region, including the Sora River basin, to future extreme weather and hydrological events.