COMPARISON OF THE NEW SEISMIC HAZARD MAP OF SLOVENIA (2021) WITH THE EUROPEAN AND NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES‘ MAPS
Abstract
In 2021, the Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO) completed a seven-year project on the development of a new seismic hazard model in Slovenia. The most important result is the design ground acceleration map, a supplement to the National Annex of the earthquake-resistant design standard Eurocode 8. The earthquake hazard is greatest west of Bovec, where the PGA value on the new map is 0.325 g (gravitational acceleration). A high seismic hazard (0.300 g) is also estimated in the Idrija (west Slovenia) and Brežice/Gorjanci (east Slovenia) areas. The higher seismic hazard zone (0.275 g) also includes Ljubljana and its surrounding areas. The development of the Slovenian seismic hazard model was carried out in parallel with the project of updating the European seismic hazard model (ESHM20). We collaborated with the experts of the ESHM20 project. A comparison of the maps shows that the range of values on both maps is similar, but in the western part of Slovenia, they differ slightly due to different procedures. A comparison of maps of neighbouring countries shows that the spatial distribution of the estimated seismic hazard is similar, but the absolute values differ due to the differing approaches to seismic modelling and different ground-motion models used.
References
ARSO, 2021. Potresna nevarnost Slovenije – Projektni pospešek tal. Karta za tisk. http://potresi.arso.gov.si/doc/dokumenti/Karta_potresne_nevarnosti_2021.jpg.
ARSO, 2022. Potresna nevarnost Slovenije – Spletni pregledovalnik. Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje. https://gis.arso.gov.si/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/48ad6a51977c4ee886722a3c09c4f470?locale=sl.
Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Jež, J., Celarc, B., Novak, M., Milanič, B., Markelj, A., Bavec, M., Kastelic, V., 2021a. Database of Active Faults in Slovenia: Compiling a New Active Fault Database at the Junction Between the Alps, the Dinarides and the Pannonian Basin Tectonic Domains. Front. Earth Sci. 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.604388.
Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Celarc, B., Jež, J., Novak, M., Milanič, B., Markelj, A., 2021b. Tolmač potresnih virov in ocenjevanje geološko določenih parametrov za karto potresne nevarnosti Slovenije. Geološki zavod Slovenije, Ljubljana, 139 str.
Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Zupančič, P., Šket Motnikar, B., Živčić, M., Čarman, M., Milanič, B., Kastelic, V., Rajh, G., Gosar, A., 2022. Seismogenic fault and area sources for probabilistic seismic hazard model in Slovenia. PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.940100.
Basili, R., Kastelic, V., Demircioglu, M. B., Garcia Moreno, D., Nemser, E. S., Petricca, P., Sboras, S. P., Besana-Ostman, G. M., Cabral, J., Camelbeeck, T., Caputo, R., Danciu, L., Domac, H., Fonseca, J., García-Mayordomo, J., Giardini, D., Glavatovic, B., Gulen, L., Ince, Y., Pavlides, S., Sesetyan, K., Tarabusi, G., Tiberti, M. M., Utkucu, M., Valensise, G., Vanneste, K., Vilanova, S., Wössner, J., 2013. The European Database of Seismogenic Faults (EDSF) compiled in the framework of the Project SHARE. http://diss.rm.ingv.it/share-edsf/. https://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-SHARE-EDSF.
Cornell, C. A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606.
Crameri, F., 2021. Scientific colour maps (7.0.1). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5501399, 16. 3. 2022.
Danciu, L., Hiemer, S.; Nandan, S., Weatherill, G., Lammers, S., Rovida, A., Antonucci, A., Basili, R., Carafa, M. M. C., Kastelic, V., Maesano, F., Tiberti, M., Sesetyan, K., Vilanova, S., Beauval, C., Bard P-Y., Cotton, F., Wiemer, S., Giardini, D., 2019. Status, Milestones and Next Activities on the Development of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20), (2019), Geophys Res Abstr, Vol. 21, p1-1. 1p.
Danciu, L., Nandan, S., Reyes, C., Basili, R., Weatherill, G., Beauval, C., Rovida, A., Vilanova, S., Sesetyan, K., Bard, P-Y., Cotton, F., Wiemer, S., Giardini, D., 2021. The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model: Model Overview. EFEHR Technical Report 001, v1.0.0. https://doi.org/10.12686/a15.
DISS delovna skupina, 2018. Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), Version 3.2.1: A compilation of potential sources for earthquakes larger than M 5.5 in Italy and surrounding areas. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, 30. 11. 2021. https://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-DISS3.2.1.
EFEHR, 2022. The European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk - Earthquake hazard across Europe. http://hazard.efehr.org/en/home/.
ESHM20 delovna skupina, 2022. http://hazard.efehr.org/en/hazard-data-access/hazard-maps/.
Giardini, D., 1999. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP)—1992/1999. Ann di Geofis 42: 957–974. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.1992.tb00609.x.
Grünthal, G., GSHAP Region 3 delovna skupina, 1999. Seismic hazard assessment for Central, North and Northwest Europe: GSHAP Region 3. Ann. Geophys. https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3783. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3783.
Herak, M., Allegretti, I., Herak, D., Ivančić, I., Kuk, V., Marić, K., Markušić, S., Sović, I, 2011. Republika Hrvatska – Karta potresnih područja. Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet, Geofizički odsjek. http://seizkarta.gfz.hr/hazmap/karta.php.
Kotha, S. R., Weatherill, G., Bindi, D., 2020. A regionally-adaptable ground-motion model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Europe. Bull Earthquake Eng. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00869-1.
Košir, M., in Cecić, I., 2011. Potres 26. marca 1511 v luči novih raziskav (The Earthquake on 26 March 1511 – Interpretation of Some Unknown Historical Sources). Idrijski razgledi 56(1): 90–104.
Lapajne, J., Šket Motnikar, B., Zupančič, P., 1995a. Priprava novih kart potresne nevarnosti Slovenije. Ujma 9, 178–181.
Lapajne, J., Šket Motnikar, B., Zupančič, P., 1995b. Pogostost potresov v Sloveniji. Ujma 9, 156–159.
Lapajne, J., Šket Motnikar, B., Zupančič, P., 2001. Nova karta potresne nevarnosti – projektni pospešek tal namesto intenzitete. Gradbeni vestnik 50, 140–149.
Lapajne, J. K., Šket Motnikar, B., Zupančič, P., 2003. PSHA methodology for distributed seismicity, BSSA, Vol. 93, No. 6, 2502–2515.
Lenhardt, W., 2010. Erdbebengefährdung Zoneneinteilung Österreichs. Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Dunaj. https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/dokumente/geophysik/erdbebengefaehrdungs-karte-in-hoher-aufloesung.
Lenhardt, W., 2019. Entwicklung der Erdbebennorm. Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Dunaj. https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/geophysik/erdbeben/erdbeben-in-oesterreich/entwicklung-der-erdbebennorm.
Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D‘Amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., Pace, B., Rovida, A., Taroni, M., Visini, F., in MPS19 delovna skupina: The new Italian Seismic Hazard Model (MPS19). Annals of Geophysics, 64 (1), 515 doi:10.4401/ag-8579, 2021.
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M., Vigano, D., 2014. OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the Global Earthquake Model. Seismol Res Lett 85:692-702. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087.
Poljak, M., Živčić, M., Zupančič, P., 2000. The Seismotectonic Characteristics of Slovenia. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 157(1), 37–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001099.
Protezione Civile, 2017. Io non rischio – I don‘t take risks communication campaign: Seismic hazard. https://iononrischio.protezionecivile.it/en/earthquake/interactive-maps/seismic-hazard/.
SIST EN 1998-1:2005 - Evrokod 8, 2005. Projektiranje potresnoodpornih konstrukcij - 1. del: Splošna pravila, potresni vplivi in pravila za stavbe, slovenski standard, Slovenski inštitut za standardizacijo, Ljubljana, 2005 - Eurocode 8: Design of structures for earthquake resistance - Part 1: General rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings, angl. standard, I.
SIST EN 1998-1:2005/oA101:2005 - Evrokod 8, 2005. Projektiranje potresnoodpornih konstrukcij - 1. del: Splošna pravila, potresni vplivi in pravila za stavbe : nacionalni dodatek, Slovenski inštitut za standardizacijo, Ljubljana.
Stucchi, M., Meletti, C., Montaldo, V., Akinci, A., Faccioli E., Gasperini, P., Malagnini, L., Valensise, G., 2004. Pericolosità sismica di riferimento per il territorio nazionale MPS04 [Data set]. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). https://doi.org/10.13127/sh/mps04/ag.
Šket Motnikar, B., Zupančič, P., Živčić, M., Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Čarman, M., Kastelic, V., Danciu, L., Gosar, A., Carafa, M. M. C., Weatherill, G., Rajh, G., Basili, R., 2021. Development of a new seismic hazard map of Slovenia (2021) and interaction with the European Seismic Hazard Model ESHM20. V: 37th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, 19-24 September 2021, Book of abstracts. Athens, 262–263.
Šket Motnikar, B., Zupančič, P., Živčić, M., Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Čarman, M., Danciu, L., Gosar, A., 2022a. The 2021 seismic hazard model for Slovenia (SHMS21): overview and results. Bull Earthquake Eng (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01399-8.
Šket Motnikar, B., Zupančič, P., Živčić, M., Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Čarman, M., Kastelic, V., Gosar, A., 2022b. Nov model potresne nevarnosti Slovenije (2021). V Kuhar, M., Vreča, P., Zupančič, P., Čarman, M., Šraj, M., Triglav Čekada, M., Skok, G., Ličer, M., Stopar, B., Čop, R., (uredniki), Raziskave s področja geodezije in geofizike 2021 : zbornik del. 27. srečanje Slovenskega združenja za geodezijo in geofiziko, Ljubljana, 27. januar 2022. Slovensko združenje za geodezijo in geofiziko. http://fgg-web.fgg.uni-lj.si/SUGG/referati/2022/SZGG_2022_Sket_in_dr.pdf.
Tóth, L., Győri, E., Mónus, P., Zsíros, T., 2006. Seismic Hazard in the Pannonian Region. V Pinter, N., Gyula, G., Weber, J., Stein, S., Medak, D. (uredniki) The Adria Microplate: GPS Geodesy, Tectonics and Hazards. Nato Science Series: IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol 61. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4235-3_25.
Tóth, L., Győri, E., Mónus, P., Zsíros, T., 2013. Seismic hazard in Hungary. Kövesligethy Radó Seismological Observatory, Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science, 2013. http://www.seismology.hu/index.php/en/seismicity/seismicity-and-seismic-hazard/24-seismic-hazard-in-hungary.
Weatherill, G., Kotha, S. R., Cotton, F., 2020. A regionally-adaptable “scaled backbone” ground motion logic tree for shallow seismicity in Europe: application to the 2020 European seismic hazard model. Bull Earthquake Eng 18, 5087–5117. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00899-9.
Weginger, S., Jia, Y., Papi-Isaba, M.d.P., Lenhardt, W., Hausmann, H., 2019. Entwicklung einer regionalen Erdbebengefährdungskarte für Österreich. 16. D-A-CH Tagung Erdbebeningenieurwesen & Baudynamik (D-A-CH 2019) 26. in 27. september 2019, Universität Innsbruck, 27–34.
Woessner, J., Danciu, L., Giardini, D., in SHARE konzorcij, 2015. The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results, Bull. Earthq. Eng., doi:10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1.
Živčić, M., Cecić, I., Čarman, M., Jesenko, T., Ložar Stopar, M., Pahor, J., 2018. Earthquake catalogue KPN2018 of Slovenia and surrounding, rev. 3, Agencija RS za okolje (ARSO), Urad za seizmologijo, Ljubljana.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The articles are made available to the public under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).