EVALUATION OF THE MASPREM SYSTEM AFTER FIVE YEARS OF TESTING OPERATIONS: IMPROVEMENTS AND FUTURE TASKS
Abstract
The Slovenian national landslide prediction system, MASPREM, was launched in September 2013. The MASPREM system forecasts landslide probability twice a day for 24 hours ahead based on a landslide susceptibility map, statistically defined rainfall threshold values, and rainfall forecast models. After five years of testing, the MASPREM 3 project carried out a comprehensive analysis of the verification of matching forecasts of various MASPREM models with the landslides that actually occurred. We considered five different models at different time periods, which vary according to rainfall thresholds, rainfall model predictions, and the inclusion of antecedent rainfall. This article presents the assessment of the success of landslide forecasting in real time, depending on the predicted rainfall models, and future challenges.
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