ANALYSIS OF CAUSES AND NUMERICAL MODELLING OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON 18 SEPTEMBER 2007

Authors

  • Mark Žagar Ministrstvo za okolje in prostor, Agencija RS za okolje, Ljubljana

Abstract

The most probable causes of the heavy rain episode of September 18, 2007 are presented and explained in the paper. We believe that the orographic triggering of potential instability contributed significantly to the intensity of rain, coupled to the quasi-stationary character of the convection due to the terrain shape in western Slovenia. The available numerical models provided good and useful guidance for as much as 4 days in advance. Deficiencies in the forecast were due to insufficient model resolution, which is confirmed by a simulation using a research model at 1 km resolution.

References

Fischer C., Montmerle, T., Berre, L., Auger, L. and Stefanescu, S. E., 2006. An overview of the variational assimilation in the ALADIN/FRANCE NWP system. Quart. Jour. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 613, 3477—3492.

Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Wang, W. and Powers, J. G., 2005. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2. NCAR Technical Note (http://wrf-model.org/ wrfadmin/docs/arw_v2.pdf).

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Published

19-01-2024

Issue

No. 22 (2008): Ujma

Section

Poplave 18. septembra 2007

License

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The articles are made available to the public under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).