CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT IN SLOVENIA

Abstract

The average temperature in Europe has increased by 1 °C over the past 100 years and is projected to rise by as much as a further 6.3 °C by 2100. Evidence is growing of climate change’s impact on human and ecosystem health, as well as economic viability. The effects of climate change include economic losses resulting from weather and climate-related events such as droughts. Projections for central Europe indicate an increased risk of water shortage, which would harm vegetation. Long term average (1961-1990) precipitation (RR) and air temperature (T) data for the summer period (June, July and August) were used for estimating present potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) areas. Data for T in the summer period for 108 locations were used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration (PET) using Thornthweite’s method. Combining RR data for the same time period for 366 locations with calculated values for PET using GIS, maps of PSMD areas and their intensity, were made. Warm and dry climate change scenarios were applied and the entire procedure for estimating PSMD areas and their spatial visualization was repeated. Comparing the present state and predictions, some conclusions about the possible impact of climate change on soil mby for about 100 % or even more if the increase of T was 2 °C and the reduction of RR 10 % in summer. The separate effect of a 2 °C rise in T is similar to the separate effect of a 10 % RR reduction. These changes may require measures of adaptation and changes in agriculture and nature protection strategies.