ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RISK IN CROSS-BORDER AREAS ACCORDING TO THE METHODOLOGY OF THE BORIS PROJECT
Abstract
For the strategic planning of strengthening the earthquake and flood resilience of a selected area, it makes sense to analyse the risk by considering all the possible events of the considered natural hazards rather than arbitrarily selected scenarios. As part of the European project BORIS, we have therefore developed a methodology for the assessment of fluvial flood and tectonic earthquake risk. The methodology enables the evaluation of risk by an average annual loss or average annual cost of renovation of the building stock. This paper first provides an overview of the methodology used in the BORIS project, including examples of how the methodology has been applied in the Slovenia-Italy and Slovenia-Austria cross-border areas. These examples are thoroughly analysed, with a specific focus on the assumptions and limitations of the presented results. It is important to note that the results are informative at this stage of the research, because additional validation is still required. Nevertheless, the estimated average annual costs due to floods and/or earthquakes in some municipalities are notably high, demanding immediate action to reduce these risks even before such extreme natural events occur. The most significant challenges in risk analysis in cross-border areas predominantly arise from the diversity of databases and risk analysis models, which is a consequence of insufficient regulation of this domain at the European level. Consequently, additional research is needed to harmonise the estimation of building renovation costs regardless of the damage caused by various natural hazards.
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