MODELS OF SEISMIC RISK COMMUNICATION
Abstract
Efficient communication of seismic risk is the basis for building awareness of seismic risk in different interest groups, which is a prerequisite for planning community resilience in response to strong earthquakes. An efficient model of seismic risk communication has not yet been established in Slovenia, so it is not possible to inform owners and users of buildings and other stakeholders about seismic risk in a simple way. In some countries with moderate or high earthquake risk, such as Italy, New Zealand and the United States (California), seismic risk communication to the public has already been established in a systematic manner; it is communicated by a multi-level rating or as a proportion of the acceptable risk, which enables clear communication of the level of risk, including to the non-professional public. This paper presents a new model for risk communication due to natural hazards which has recently been developed at the Institute of Structural Engineering, Earthquake Engineering and Construction IT. The model is based on a five-level grading system with the possibility of extension to additional grades, and it can take into account various risk indicators such as, for example, the probability of exceeding a building’s damage state or the expected annual loss. The model incorporates the concept of long-term and short-term risk tolerance, which is the basis for time-dependent risk communication. Where the risk of a building or building stock is only tolerable in the short term, a gradual reduction in the rating is foreseen, if no measure for risk mitigation has been provided within the prescribed time.
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